PRESIDENT Ebrahim Raisi of Iran and the Foreign Minister of the country both died in the tragic helicopter crash on Sunday 19th May 2024near the border with Azerbaijan, while returning home after inaugurating a new dam. The crash has ignited a fierce debate in Iran and many other countries of the world about the cause of this tragic accident. The air is rife with rumors and allegations about international conspiracies and the hand of Israel and the USA in this crash that is being reported as an assassination by the arch enemies of Iran that is America and Israel.It is highly unlikely that we will ever know about the exact cause of this tragedy. Most likely it will be written off as human error or weather conditions or technical or engine failure of the aircraft.
It was first reported as a “hard landing” by the Iranian state television and several hours later the news channels confirmed the death of the President and the foreign minister Hussein Amir Abdollahian along with several other high ranking officials on board the helicopter. President Raisi was known as a favorite and a protégé of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his potential successor in the country’s orthodox Shia theocracy that runs the country. He was in the forefront of the Islamic revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and has lived in Tehran since 1980 where he pursued a career as a public prosecutor. During his tenure as a prosecutor he was known as a very strict official who managed to sentence thousands of prisoners to death who were seen as anti-national or supporters of Saddam Hussein of Iraq. He also held the position of Deputy Chief of Judiciary and prosecutor General and later on as the Judiciary Chief. In 2021, Raisi ran again in an election in which Iran’s vetting system disqualified all his significant opponents. He won nearly 62% of the 28.9 million votes cast, marking the lowest voter turnout percentage in the Islamic Republic’s history. Millions of people stayed home, and many others voided their ballots.
By all appearances it seems that the crash was an accident due to inclement weather and aging craft was poorly maintained due to the severe sanctions and the subsequent shortage of spare parts. Initially no details were given by the Iranian authorities that fuelled all sorts of rumors and speculations. How can a helicopter carrying the top leadership of the country simply disappear with a so-called hard landing within its own borders? Possibly the Iranian Authorities knew immediately but avoided the news while planning how to inform their own people and the world community.
During this time conspiracy theorists were quick to point accusing fingers at Israel and its dreaded intelligence agency Mossad. Israel vehemently denied any involvement but Iranian analysts cited other instances of Israeli actions on the soil of Iran. Another theory doing the rounds that this was an inside job.Although Iran is a tightly controlled system that usually bends to Khamenei’s whims, that doesn’t mean political competition doesn’t exist. In fact, it’s rampant. Raisi was thought to have been handpicked by the supreme leader to be president. Though astute analysts doubted Raisi had the chops to rise to the top, it was widely assumed that he was in the running to succeed Khamenei. Now, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, is the likeliest person to assume the full power of the state when his father dies. There was a time when loyalty meant something in Iran’s theocratic system, but there has also been a long history of violent and unresolved deaths within the state in the 45-year history of the Islamic republic. In the eyes of some Iranians, this will make Mojtaba and his cronies’ immediate suspects — and for regime insiders, it’s yet another sign that deadly infighting is likely to increase after Khamenei dies. The Theory of Israel as assassin of the President went viral because of the recent escalations and heated conflict between the two countries including the killing of an Iranian General in Damascus and the firing of numerous missiles at Israel from Iran. Israel is also said to have carried out numerous attacks that targeted Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. Two of the favorite whipping boys in Iran are the USA and Israel. Even before an investigation was ordered into the helicopter crash that killed the President and foreign minister of Iran blame was being laid at the door of the USA.
Former foreign minister Javad Zarif acidly told Iran’s state TV that, “One of the causes of this heart-breaking incident is the United States, which by sanctioning the sale of the aviation industry to Iran caused the martyrdom of the president and his companions. The US’s crime will be recorded in the minds of the Iranian people and history.” US officials quickly dismissed the allegations as “Baseless” There are many reasons the aging American-made, Vietnam war-era Bell 212 helicopter may have crashed. Poor maintenance or human error in the dense fog are among them. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu has said it is too soon to comment on the cause of the crash, but initial indications suggested it was an accident due to foggy weather.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
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